Energy Markets Daily

Friday, September 19, 2026. Vietnam: declining domestic crude ~8.2M tonnes annually, Jan-Apr 2026 2.9M tonnes (+14.4% YoY, field depletion). Oil imports Jan-Apr 2026 3.8M tonnes (-23%, Kuwait down sharply, diversifying). Crude sources: domestic/US (ExxonMobil/Chevron)/West Africa/Russia (ESPO/Sokol). Gas production ~8 bcm 2025, target >20 bcm 2034 (Ca Voi Xanh/Block B). Upstream market USD 2.82B 2025, projected USD 3.91B 2031 (CAGR 5.57%). LNG scaling: Thi Vai (PV GAS) 1 mtpa current (expanding 3 mtpa, 1.5 GW power supply), pursuing 2nd 5-yr contract 250k-450k Mt (Thi Vai, Jan 2027 start post-Shell 2027-2031), Cai Mep (Hai Linh) 3 mtpa operating fully commissioned ramped (ownership→Nebula/AG&P), Hai Lang 1.5 mtpa, Quynh Lap 1.15 mtpa (construction May 2026, target 2030), Vung Ang 1-3 mtpa phase 1 (2029-30+), Son My 4.8+ mtpa phased, Bac Lieu 2 mtpa floating, N. Vietnam/Hai Phong 1.2 mtpa proposed, Long An/Ca Na/others various. LNG-to-power: Govt 22.5 GW target (current 1.6 GW). T&T-TotalEnergies: USD 1.5B Long Son LNG-fired (1,500 MW Ho Chi Minh). Hai Lang: 1,500 MW linked terminal (T&T/South Korea consortium). Quynh Lap: 1,500 MW power (SK Innovation/PV Power). PDP VIII: flexible LNG-to-power/DPPAs. Dung Quat Refinery (BSR Petrovietnam, Quang Ngai): designed 6.5 Mt/yr (140k-148k b/d), 2026 record target 8.3 Mt highest since 2009, first 7mo 4.76 Mt (106% target, 124% capacity), crude diversified (domestic/US/W. Africa/Russia) 3+ mo mid-2026. Products: RON95/E5/E10 gasoline/diesel/Jet A-1/LPG. BSR-BF biofuels: 100% capacity mid-Apr (~330 m³/d E100 ethanol). Expansion USD 1.5-1.8B (Hyundai/Technip bids) 171k-190k b/d Euro 5, site prep 50% June 2026, EPC Aug 2027, ops ~2028. Revenue target VND 154T (~USD 5.9B) 2026 (+7% YoY), Q1 revenue 41.28T VND profit 3.35T. Cumulative >USD 10B state budget 2009+. Nghi Son 2nd refinery 200k b/d, combined support domestic. Russia: interest expand LNG/refined products supplies Vietnam. International: Russia/TotalEnergies/S. Korea partnerships. Vietnam: declining domestic crude/gas, LNG-to-power 22.5 GW target scaling, Dung Quat record 8.3 Mt 2026 (124% capacity), biofuels 100%, expansion 171k-190k b/d 2028, BSR revenue 5.9B USD target, Nghi Son 200k b/d, Russia expanding supplies. Vietnam: domestic decline, LNG surge, refinery powerhouse, geopolitical partner.