Strategic Positioning: Week 32
Monday, August 11, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI Sep 2026 futures trading $77 to $78.18, up 0.89 or 1.15%. Day range $76.53-$78.77. Volume 206K. Oct 2026 around $76.10-$77.15. Brent reference $87.38/bbl. Technical: Overall Strong Buy driven by moving averages (Strong Buy on 10/12 signals); oscillators mixed/neutral to buy. MA5 values around $78.46-$78.59 showing buy signals. Elliott Wave: WTI plunged for a second week amid hopes of a deal to reopen the Hormuz Strait. Daily analysis: Downtrend with suggested sell level at $80 targeting $73. J.P. Morgan forecast: Brent expected to average $86/bbl in Q3 2026, $80 in Q4, $78 by year-end. Futures curve: Mild contango (Sep > Oct > later months declining toward ~$60s by 2030s). YTD performance: Sep 2026 contract +27% YTD, +21.7% over 1 year; +3% over 5 days, +5.4% over 1 month. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 3 spot $2.81/MMBtu (latest daily). Jul 31 spot $2.59/MMBtu. Jul 2026 monthly average $2.89/MMBtu. Near-term futures (NGU26) ~$2.67-$2.722 (as of Aug 8-9). Recent daily futures closes: Aug 7 ~$2.67; Aug 6 ~$2.63; Aug 5 ~$2.67; Aug 4 ~$2.69; Aug 3 ~$2.77. EIA forecast: Henry Hub spot expected to average close to $3.60-$3.67/MMBtu for full-year 2026. Market note: Ample supply and storage levels; futures testing multiyear lows as rollover looms. STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS: Tanker traffic only 5 transits in 24 hours ending Aug 5 (3 inbound, 2 outbound) — roughly 75% below pre-crisis daily average of 20+. Suspected attacks Aug 2: Two tankers (VLCC Egypt Prosperity and Aframax On Pride) reported incidents involving explosions; both escaped unscathed. Explosion reports Aug 5: Tanker reported two nearby explosions southeast of Kumzar, Oman; vessel and crew safe. Iran-Oman talks: Negotiating agreement on reopening strait; Iran published restrictive draft plan with conditions, bans on certain nations' ships, penalties. Broader traffic trends: 84 total transits Jul 27-Aug 2 (up from prior weeks but still far below normal); non-Iranian/Chinese-linked traffic limited. Insurance concerns: High war-risk insurance keeping most commercial tankers away; traffic dominated by Iranian- and Chinese-linked vessels. Expert view: Traffic could rise quickly with credible security deal but unlikely to return to pre-war highs (130-140 vessels daily) immediately. THE READ: Crude WTI Sep 2026 $77-$78.18, up 1.15%; Strong Buy technical; Elliott Wave plunge on Hormuz deal hopes; sell level $80 targeting $73; J.P. Morgan Brent $86 Q3, $80 Q4, $78 year-end; mild contango curve; YTD +27%. Gas Aug 3 spot $2.81; Jul average $2.89; NGU26 $2.67-$2.722; EIA forecast $3.60-$3.67 full-year; ample supply; multiyear lows. Hormuz 5 tanker transits in 24 hours, 75% below normal; suspected attacks Aug 2 and 5; Iran-Oman talks ongoing; 84 total transits Jul 27-Aug 2; war-risk insurance high; Iranian and Chinese vessels dominating; deal could accelerate traffic but not to pre-war levels immediately. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.
