Fifth Consecutive Monthly Hike
Wednesday, August 13, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI Sep 2026 futures trading $82.10-$83.38; recent trade $83.10 +0.97 on Aug 11 data; settlement/open levels $82.25-$82.88; up ~1%+ intraday in some sessions. WTI Aug 2026 futures ~$84.91. Oct 2026 ~$81.06-$81.52. Nov 2026 ~$79.76. Recent spot/WTI prices (early Aug 2026) around $78-$82 range; examples include ~$81.96 on Aug 3; ~$78.16-$78.78 in early/mid-August; decline to ~$77.11 on Aug 4. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Aug 2026): Brent spot forecast averaging ~$85/bbl in Q3 2026 (WTI typically trades at discount to Brent); 2027 average ~$69. Bloomberg energy snapshot (Aug 11): WTI ~$83.05-$83.45 (Aug/Sep 2026 contracts); Brent ~$88.71 (Sep 2026). Recent opens/closes: WTI futures opened ~$78.31 on Aug 7; ~$77.74 on Aug 10; recent closes/settlements in low-to-mid $82 area on Aug 10-11. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 3 spot (latest reported) $2.81/MMBtu. Sep 2026 futures (NGU26) $2.77-$2.79/MMBtu (recent trades around $2.754-$2.789). Oct 2026 (NGV26) ~$2.835/MMBtu. Recent spot prices (early Aug 2026) low-to-mid $2.60s-$2.80s range. EIA forecast Q3 2026 average around $2.87/MMBtu; prices expected to stay below $3.00/MMBtu through much of period due to high storage and production. 2026 annual average forecasts $2.89-$3.50 range depending on source/timing. OPEC+ PRODUCTION: August 2026 quota increase +188,000 bpd (effective from start of month). Core countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman. Cumulative increase (Apr-Aug 2026) 958,000 bpd total. Trend: Fifth consecutive monthly hike; further similar increases expected (e.g., another ~188,000 bpd potentially for September). Context: Phased unwinding of earlier voluntary production cuts (originally from 2023). Note on actual vs. target: Announced quotas reflect targets amid ongoing market reviews (e.g., post-Iran conflict dynamics affecting shipping in Strait of Hormuz). Physical output may lag due to logistical/geopolitical factors; some reports noting subdued tanker activity despite quota hikes. OPEC+ crude output reached approximately 43.05 million bpd in September 2025; 2026 demand for OPEC+ crude projected around 43.1 million bpd. 2026 global oil demand growth: OPEC raising forecast to ~1.4 million bpd growth. OPEC MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT: Release date August 12, 2026. Includes detailed supply/demand data and actual production estimates. Latest available July 2026 edition. THE READ: Crude WTI Sep 2026 $82.10-$83.38; recent trade $83.10 +0.97; settlement/open $82.25-$82.88; up ~1%+; WTI Aug 2026 $84.91; Oct 2026 $81.06-$81.52; Nov 2026 $79.76; recent spot/WTI early Aug $78-$82 range; $81.96 Aug 3; $78.16-$78.78 early/mid-Aug; decline to $77.11 Aug 4; EIA STEO Aug 2026 Brent $85/bbl Q3; WTI discount to Brent; 2027 average $69; Bloomberg Aug 11 WTI $83.05-$83.45 Aug/Sep 2026; Brent $88.71 Sep 2026; recent opens/closes WTI Aug 7 $78.31; Aug 10 $77.74; recent closes/settlements low-to-mid $82 Aug 10-11. Gas: Aug 3 spot $2.81; Sep 2026 NGU26 $2.77-$2.79; recent trades $2.754-$2.789; Oct 2026 NGV26 $2.835; recent spot early Aug low-to-mid $2.60s-$2.80s; EIA Q3 2026 average $2.87; prices below $3.00 through much of period; high storage/production; 2026 annual average $2.89-$3.50. OPEC+: Aug 2026 quota +188,000 bpd; core countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman; cumulative Apr-Aug 2026 958,000 bpd; fifth consecutive monthly hike; further similar increases expected; another 188,000 potentially September; phased unwinding earlier voluntary production cuts from 2023; announced quotas reflect targets amid ongoing market reviews; post-Iran conflict dynamics affecting Strait of Hormuz shipping; physical output may lag; subdued tanker activity despite quota hikes; OPEC+ output Sept 2025 43.05 million bpd; 2026 demand OPEC+ crude 43.1 million bpd; 2026 global oil demand growth OPEC raising forecast 1.4 million bpd. OPEC MOMR: Aug 12 2026 release; detailed supply/demand data and actual production estimates; latest available July 2026 edition. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.
