Technicals: Week 31
Tuesday, August 4, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI closed Aug 3 near $79.59 (sharp daily decline). Aug 2026 contract CLQ26 at $84.91-$84.99 (strong buy signal per Barchart). Technical summary: Overall Buy/Strong Buy (6 buy signals, 1 sell); Neutral on moving averages (6 buy, 6 sell). Shorter-term MA5/10/20 showing buy signals near $79.60-$80.30; longer-term MA50/100/200 sell signals near $81.50-$83.40. Indicators: RSI 14 neutral at 47.5; STOCH buy; MACD sell; overbought readings (STOCHRSI, Williams %R); CCI bullish. Pivot points: Support S1 $79.71, S2 $79.01, S3 $78.55; Pivot $80.17; Resistance R1 $80.87, R2 $81.33, R3 $82.03. Short-term bearish tilt: 4H chart gap down, declining MACD (bearish momentum), RSI 39, falling MFI, price below VWAP/SMA20. Trading plan: Shorts below $78.42 targeting $76 and $74; longs above $80.53. LiteFinance Aug 4 forecast: Continued decline; range low $73.91, average $79.50, high $85.09. Broader Aug 2026 range: $67.93-$106.74 (geopolitics, inventories, OPEC+, Fed policy, technical corrections). Support: Intraday support near $78.00; mixed bullish/bearish momentum. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Jul 27 spot $2.63/MMBtu (most recent daily). Jul 2026 monthly average $3.15/MMBtu. Recent daily spots: Jul 24 $2.87; Jul 23 $2.92; Jul 22 $2.93; Jul 21 $2.80. Sep 2026 futures (NGU26) $2.77 (up ~1% that session). Aug 2026 futures $2.72-$2.77 range. 2026 full-year EIA forecast $3.60-$3.67/MMBtu. Q3 2026 EIA forecast $3.37/MMBtu average. Market note: Ample supply; weather influences; renewables crimp upside. THE READ: Crude WTI $79.59 close; Aug 2026 CLQ26 $84.91-$84.99; Buy/Strong Buy overall; shorter-term MA buy signals; longer-term MA sell signals; RSI neutral; STOCH buy; MACD sell; pivot support S1 $79.71, S2 $79.01, S3 $78.55; pivot $80.17; resistance R1 $80.87, R2 $81.33, R3 $82.03; short-term bearish; shorts below $78.42 targeting $76 and $74; longs above $80.53; Aug 4 forecast range low $73.91, average $79.50, high $85.09; Aug 2026 range $67.93-$106.74; support $78.00. Gas: Jul 27 spot $2.63; Jul average $3.15; recent spots $2.80-$2.93; Sep 2026 $2.77; Aug 2026 $2.72-$2.77; 2026 forecast $3.60-$3.67; Q3 forecast $3.37; ample supply; weather influences; renewables crimp upside. Trade the charts. Respect the levels.
