Technicals: Week 32
Tuesday, August 12, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading around $82.38, up 0.30%. Daily range $81.99-$82.50. Technical summary: Overall Strong Buy. Moving averages Strong Buy (12 buy, 0 sell). Technical indicators Strong Buy (7 buy, 0 sell). All major moving average periods (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200) showing buy signals. Indicators: RSI(14) at 77.6 (overbought); Stochastic overbought; MACD buy; ADX buy; CCI buy; several others neutral to buy. Pivot points: $82.21 pivot; support $81.83-$82.02; resistance $82.40-$82.59. Recent action: Sharp 4% drop on Aug 4 to $77.11 on US-Iran diplomatic news; recovered toward $80-$82 zone. Key support: Psychological $75 major zone; 200-day MA near $78 as dynamic support. Key resistance: $80 (prior support turned resistance); 50-day MA around $82. Barchart Sep '26: Price near $78.70; shorter-term MAs mixed; Stochastic/RSI neutral-to-bearish on very short timeframes. Longer-term forecasts: August 2026 ranges $61-$93 (high volatility); mid-$80s recovery later in year. EIA outlook: Brent projected $74/bbl in Q3 2026. J.P. Morgan: Brent Q3 2026 average $86, gradual decline into year-end. Prediction markets: Probabilities around touching $75-$80 levels during August 2026. Overall bias: Bullish on MAs and aggregate indicators, but overbought readings (RSI) and geopolitical volatility warrant caution. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Aug 11 spot $2.77/MMBtu (down 1% from prior day). Aug 3 spot $2.81/MMBtu. Jul 2026 monthly average $2.89/MMBtu. Recent daily closes: Aug 7 ~$2.67; Aug 6 ~$2.63; Aug 5 ~$2.67; Aug 4 ~$2.69; Aug 3 ~$2.77. Futures (NGU26) trading around $2.73-$2.78. EIA forecast: 2026 annual average Henry Hub spot prices near $3.50-$3.67/MMBtu. Market note: Ample storage and supply despite summer demand. EIA WEEKLY PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT: Release date August 12, 2026 (after 10:30 a.m. ET). Covers week ending August 7, 2026. Prior release (Aug 5): Week ending July 31 — U.S. crude oil inventories rose +2.479 million barrels (vs. expectations of -1.5M draw); stocks reached ~407M barrels. Cushing OK stocks +2.356M barrels. Key watch: Changes in crude stocks, refinery utilization, gasoline/distillate inventories, imports. Note: Starting with Aug 12 report, EIA discontinuing standalone PDF figures in favor of new data visualizations. THE READ: Crude WTI $82.38, up 0.30%; Overall Strong Buy; all major MAs bullish; RSI 77.6 overbought; Stochastic overbought; MACD buy; ADX buy; CCI buy; pivot $82.21; support $81.83-$82.02; resistance $82.40-$82.59; recent 4% drop Aug 4 to $77.11 on US-Iran news; recovered toward $80-$82 zone; key support $75 major zone; 200-day MA $78; key resistance $80; 50-day MA $82; Barchart Sep '26 $78.70; shorter-term MAs mixed; Stochastic/RSI neutral-to-bearish on very short timeframes; August 2026 ranges $61-$93; mid-$80s recovery later in year; EIA Brent $74 Q3; J.P. Morgan Brent $86 Q3, gradual decline year-end; prediction markets $75-$80 levels; overall bullish on MAs and aggregate indicators; overbought RSI and geopolitical volatility warrant caution. Gas: Aug 11 spot $2.77 (down 1%); Aug 3 spot $2.81; Jul average $2.89; recent closes Aug 7 $2.67, Aug 6 $2.63, Aug 5 $2.67, Aug 4 $2.69, Aug 3 $2.77; NGU26 $2.73-$2.78; EIA forecast $3.50-$3.67 full-year; ample storage and supply. EIA report: Aug 12 after 10:30 a.m. ET; week ending Aug 7; prior week ending July 31 crude inventories +2.479M barrels vs. -1.5M expected; stocks 407M barrels; Cushing OK +2.356M barrels; watch crude stocks, refinery utilization, gasoline/distillate inventories, imports; EIA discontinuing PDFs for new visualizations. Trade the charts. Respect the levels.
