Technicals: Week 33
Tuesday, August 18, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Investing.com (Aug 18 update) Overall Strong Buy signal; moving averages showed 11 Buy vs. 1 Sell; technical indicators unanimously Strong Buy (8/0). Barchart (Aug 17 technical analysis for Sep '26) Price closed higher (~84.61, +2.21 or +2.68% intraday in one snapshot); 5-day average ~82.90; 20-day ~82.53, with positive momentum noted. Economies.com (Aug 17 analyses) Crude oil fluctuated but held early gains with positive support from trading above key levels; preparation to resume upward moves on strong technical support after minor intraday dips. OneUpTrader (Aug 17 analysis) WTI erased early-August declines and returned to recurring 82-83 pivot zone; key resistance at 83.04 (session high/pivot); support at 81.50 (session low) and faster MA near 78.75; bullish continuation possible above 83.04 toward 87-88. FXStreet (recent hourly/daily bias) Mildly bearish near-term bias below 100-hour SMA (~81.18) but holding above 200-hour SMA and $80 support; RSI neutral/slightly downside; resistances at ~81.94, 83.57, 84.50. LiteFinance (Aug 17-18 update) USCrude around $84.14 as of Aug 18; expected consolidation on Aug 18; weekly range outlook ~67.93-97.41. Barchart (Aug '26 contract snapshot) Buy signal with strong strength; key turning points included resistance near 86.39-89.94 and support at 82.84-80.77. CME Group / market data (Aug 17-18) WTI last ~84.85 (+0.35); September contract active with positive daily closes reported around 84-85. Oilprice.com / Yahoo Finance snapshots Sep 2026 futures ~84.50-85.14 range on Aug 17-18, with day ranges like 84.62-85.37 and modest positive closes. FX Empire / YouTube forecasts (mid-Aug context) Bullish signals from falling wedge breakouts earlier in month, targeting higher levels (e.g., $94 area) if supports like ~82.50 held; recent videos noted extensions of gains. Additional context Earlier August saw sharp moves (e.g., breakdown tests near $74-77), with recovery into 80s by mid-month. Overall tone Constructive/bullish on Aug 17-18, driven by price action reclaiming moving averages and pivots near 82-83; some noted near-term consolidation risks or overhead resistance; geopolitical factors (Hormuz/Middle East) referenced as potential drivers but secondary to chart levels; prices showed +2%+ daily gains on Aug 17 in multiple reports. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Front-month contracts (NGQ26/Aug '26 or NGU26/Sep '26) Trading near $2.67-$2.73/MMBtu, with recent spot prices around $2.79. Shriram Insight pivots for Henry Hub Sep-26 contract (as of Aug 17, 2026; close 2.733) S3 2.628, S2 2.669, S1 2.701, Pivot 2.742, R1 2.774, R2 2.815, R3 2.847. Barchart key turning points for NGQ26 (Aug '26; last ~2.725) 3rd resistance 2.942, 2nd resistance 2.856, 1st resistance 2.791; 1st support 2.640, 2nd support 2.554, 3rd support 2.489. Multiyear lows Tested near $2.50-$2.56 (e.g., Bollinger Band support mentioned in July 2026 commentary). Broader range references Support near $2.65 and resistance in $3.30 area (medium-term views). Recent daily closes/levels Hovered around $2.67-$2.79, with volatility tied to storage, supply, and weather. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT (Week Ending Aug 7, Released Aug 12): U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) Rose sharply by 17.4 million barrels in week ending Aug 7, 2026, reaching 424.4 million barrels. Prior week Smaller increase of 2.479 million barrels (week ending July 31), bringing stocks to approximately 407 million barrels. Five-year average comparison Crude oil inventories stood about 6% below five-year average for time of year. Refinery crude runs Averaged 17.2 million barrels per day in week ending Aug 7 (down 183,000 bpd from prior week), with operable capacity utilization at 96.5%. Total commercial petroleum inventories Increased by 11.6 million barrels in earlier comparable week. Gasoline inventories Rose modestly in recent weeks (e.g., +0.8 million barrels in one period) but remained ~7% below five-year average. Distillate inventories Mixed changes, with builds or draws of 1-3+ million barrels in recent weeks and levels ~10% below average. Cushing hub Crude stocks rose notably in prior weeks (e.g., +2.356 million barrels). Net U.S. crude imports Increased in recent reporting periods (e.g., +297,000 bpd in one week). SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) Total holdings in ~300+ million barrel range across sites as of early Aug 2026, distinct from commercial inventories. Next report For week ending Aug 14, scheduled for release Aug 19, 2026. THE READ: Crude technicals Investing.com Strong Buy, 11 Buy vs. 1 Sell, 8 to 0 Strong Buy; Barchart 84.61 +2.21 or +2.68%, 5-day 82.90, 20-day 82.53, positive momentum; Economies.com held early gains, positive support, upward moves, strong technical support; OneUpTrader 82-83 pivot, 83.04 resistance, 81.50 support, 78.75 MA, bullish above 83.04 toward 87-88; FXStreet mildly bearish below 100-hour SMA 81.18, above 200-hour SMA and $80, RSI neutral, resistances 81.94, 83.57, 84.50; LiteFinance 84.14, consolidation, 67.93-97.41; Barchart Buy strong, 86.39-89.94 resistance, 82.84-80.77 support; CME 84.85 +0.35, Sep active, 84-85; Oilprice Yahoo 84.50-85.14, 84.62-85.37, modest positive; FX Empire bullish wedge breakouts, $94 target, 82.50 support, extensions; earlier August sharp moves $74-77, recovery 80s; constructive bullish Aug 17-18, moving averages pivots 82-83, consolidation risks, overhead resistance, Hormuz Middle East secondary, +2%+ Aug 17. Gas technicals NGQ26 NGU26 $2.67-$2.73, spot $2.79; Shriram Sep-26 close 2.733, S3 2.628, S2 2.669, S1 2.701, Pivot 2.742, R1 2.774, R2 2.815, R3 2.847; Barchart NGQ26 2.725, 3rd resistance 2.942, 2nd 2.856, 1st 2.791, 1st support 2.640, 2nd 2.554, 3rd 2.489; multiyear lows $2.50-$2.56, Bollinger Band July; broader $2.65 support, $3.30 resistance; recent $2.67-$2.79, storage supply weather. EIA Week ending Aug 7, released Aug 12; commercial crude excluding SPR +17.4M barrels, 424.4M total; prior week +2.479M, 407M; 6% below 5-year average; refinery 17.2M bpd, down 183k, 96.5% utilization; total petroleum +11.6M; gasoline +0.8M, 7% below average; distillate 1-3+M, 10% below; Cushing +2.356M; imports +297k bpd; SPR 300+M barrels; next Aug 19 for week ending Aug 14. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.
