Technicals: Week 34
Tuesday, August 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Current price context Latest ~$85.62 (down ~1.65% on day); intraday range ~$84.71-$86.56; Aug 24 reference/closing levels around $85.23. RSI(14) 46.691 — Neutral (neither overbought >70 nor oversold <30). MACD(12,26) -0.25 — Sell signal (negative, indicating bearish momentum). MA5 (Simple) $85.41 — Buy. MA5 (Exponential) $85.47 — Buy. MA10 (Simple) $85.41 — Buy. MA10 (Exponential) $85.53 — Buy. MA20 (Simple) $85.83 — Sell. MA20 (Exponential) $85.71 — Sell. MA50 (Simple) $86.25 — Sell. MA50 (Exponential) $85.83 — Sell. MA100 (Simple) $85.45 — Buy. MA100 (Exponential) $85.31 — Buy. MA200 (Simple) $83.95 — Buy. MA200 (Exponential) $84.08 — Buy. Overall summary Mixed/neutral bias — Moving averages lean Buy (8 buy vs. 4 sell), while technical indicators lean Sell/neutral (mixed oscillator signals). Recent context Day of downside pressure; recent closes/levels around $84.8-$86 range. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Current price context Trading near $2.76-$2.81/MMBtu amid well-supplied market and seasonal shoulder-period dynamics. Key Support Levels: $2.50 Major/multiyear structural support; tested multiple times without sustained break; aligns with longer-term lows and analyst targets for September contract. $2.56-$2.563 Lower 20-day Bollinger Band area (noted in July 2026 analysis for September contract; relevant near rollover). $2.68-$2.70s Near-term range lows and technical thresholds. $2.71-$2.74 Recent intraday lows and pivot-derived supports (e.g., Classic S3 around 2.74-2.746). $2.756-$2.761 Classic/Fibonacci pivot supports (S2/S1 levels from recent technical summaries). $2.763-$2.77 Camarilla/near-term daily supports and moving average clusters. Key Resistance Levels: $2.78-$2.79 Immediate pivot R1/R2 and recent highs in $2.70s-$2.80s consolidation zone. $2.99-$3.00 Initial/strong resistance (middle Bollinger Band area); psychological round-number level and noted ceiling for near-term contracts. $3.14-$3.35 Broader resistance zone tied to moving averages, forecasts, and prior trading ranges. $3.44-$3.50 Higher structural/psychological resistance; aligns with some longer-term forecasts and round numbers. Additional Context: Pivot points Recent Investing.com data for Micro/Natural Gas futures cluster tightly around 2.75-2.78, reflecting current low-volatility range. Range-bound theme Much of recent action confined between roughly $2.60-$2.80, with oversold momentum indicators suggesting limited follow-through on breakdowns. Psychological/round-number levels $2.00, $2.50, $3.00, $3.50 often act as magnets or barriers in NG trading. Technical bias Leaned neutral-to-bearish short-term due to supply but with potential upside from demand or momentum shifts. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT (Week Ending Aug 14, Released Aug 19): U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) Rose by 4.4 million barrels week-over-week to 428.8 million barrels. Five-year average comparison This inventory level matches five-year average for time of year. Crude oil refinery inputs Averaged 17.4 million barrels per day (up 215,000 bpd from prior week), with refineries operating at ~97.2% of operable capacity. Total commercial petroleum inventories Increased by 8.8 million barrels. Motor gasoline inventories Rose by 0.7 million barrels and stood 5% below five-year average. Distillate fuel inventories Fell by 1.5 million barrels and were about 13% below five-year average. Propane/propylene inventories Increased by 2.0 million barrels and were 31% above five-year average. U.S. crude oil imports Averaged 6.6 million barrels per day (down 746,000 bpd from prior week). WTI crude oil spot price (Cushing) $83.99 per barrel. Motor gasoline supplied (4-week average) 8.9 million barrels per day (down 0.9% year-over-year). Distillate supplied (4-week average) 3.7 million barrels per day (down 0.8% y/y). Next report For week ending Aug 21, scheduled for release Aug 26, 2026. THE READ: Crude technicals Latest $85.62, down 1.65% on day, intraday range $84.71-$86.56, Aug 24 reference/closing $85.23; RSI 14 46.691 neutral, neither overbought nor oversold; MACD 12/26 -0.25 sell signal, negative, bearish momentum; MA5 simple $85.41 buy, exponential $85.47 buy; MA10 simple $85.41 buy, exponential $85.53 buy; MA20 simple $85.83 sell, exponential $85.71 sell; MA50 simple $86.25 sell, exponential $85.83 sell; MA100 simple $85.45 buy, exponential $85.31 buy; MA200 simple $83.95 buy, exponential $84.08 buy; overall mixed/neutral bias, moving averages lean buy 8 vs. 4 sell, technical indicators lean sell/neutral, mixed oscillator signals; day downside pressure, recent closes/levels $84.8-$86. Gas technicals Trading $2.76-$2.81/MMBtu, well-supplied market, seasonal shoulder-period dynamics; support $2.50 major/multiyear structural, tested multiple times without sustained break, longer-term lows and analyst targets September contract; $2.56-$2.563 lower 20-day Bollinger Band, July 2026 analysis September contract, relevant near rollover; $2.68-$2.70s near-term range lows and technical thresholds; $2.71-$2.74 recent intraday lows and pivot-derived supports, classic S3 around 2.74-2.746; $2.756-$2.761 classic/Fibonacci pivot supports, S2/S1 levels recent technical summaries; $2.763-$2.77 Camarilla/near-term daily supports and moving average clusters; resistance $2.78-$2.79 immediate pivot R1/R2 and recent highs $2.70s-$2.80s consolidation zone; $2.99-$3.00 initial/strong resistance, middle Bollinger Band area, psychological round-number level, noted ceiling near-term contracts; $3.14-$3.35 broader resistance zone, moving averages, forecasts, prior trading ranges; $3.44-$3.50 higher structural/psychological resistance, longer-term forecasts and round numbers; pivot points recent Investing.com Micro/Natural Gas futures cluster tightly 2.75-2.78, current low-volatility range; range-bound theme recent action confined roughly $2.60-$2.80, oversold momentum indicators limited follow-through breakdowns; psychological/round-number levels $2.00, $2.50, $3.00, $3.50 magnets or barriers NG trading; technical bias neutral-to-bearish short-term supply, potential upside demand or momentum shifts. EIA Week ending Aug 14, released Aug 19; commercial crude excluding SPR +4.4M barrels, 428.8M total; five-year average match time of year; refinery inputs 17.4M bpd, up 215k, 97.2% operable capacity; total petroleum +8.8M; gasoline +0.7M, 5% below average; distillate -1.5M, 13% below average; propane/propylene +2.0M, 31% above average; crude imports 6.6M bpd, down 746k; WTI spot Cushing $83.99; gasoline supplied 4-week 8.9M bpd, down 0.9% YoY; distillate supplied 4-week 3.7M bpd, down 0.8% YoY; next Aug 26 for week ending Aug 21. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.
